Damian Writes About Stuff

How Blue will the wave be and can progressives seize on the moment?!

As 2025 comes to an end, and we apprehensively look forward to three more years of the Trump administration, is there any chance of things getting better? As a pessimist, I doubt it, but as a blog writer I’ll share some crumbs of hope. Historically, the incumbent party gets absolutely decimated in midterm elections: Obama lost 63 seats in 2010, Trump lost 41 in 2018, and it’s not until you go back to the peak War on Terror era Bush in 2002, that you see a net gain (a modest +8). With Trump’s approval rating reaching new lows, lower than at any point during even the first Trump term, we are set up for a huge swing back in the 2026 midterm elections. How large could this “blue wave” be? Will redistricting end up backfiring on the GOP? It’s hard to predict what the state of the world will be a year from now, but it’s fun to speculate.

One of the key data points for gauging how large a wave there could be is off-year and special elections, of which there have been a series of high-profile races over the past couple of months. One race that many people locked onto was the TN-07 special election, a district that Trump won by 20 points in 2024 but that polling showed within two points leading up to the election. The end result was not as close, but it still represented a sizable 13-point shift toward the Democrats. Similar shifts were seen in races across the country, from Florida to New Jersey. This is the kind of movement Democrats are hoping to replicate in 2026 to seize control of the House.

One of the big unknowns right now is how the redistricting battle will resolve. Not to get too distracted, but here’s a quick recap: Texas kicked off the scramble by drawing a new map that netted Republicans five seats, and California countered with a ballot proposal that offset that with five Democrative seats. A few other states have passed new maps netting a seat, with another handful intending to draw new maps in the spring. The current estimate is that all of this has given Republicans a net gain of three seats, but who knows how it will all shake out in the end.

In a moment of hopium, I now want to highlight some of the progressive candidates running for house seats that make me feel excited and positive about the future.

One thing to consider about this shift towards the democrats is that it is as much of a shift away from the republicans because of how abysmally unpopular the democratic party itself is also right now. Democratic leadership is widely viewed as feckless, with Jeffries and Schumer failing to slow Trump, and with Nancy Pelosi retiring there is a real leadership void. Within the party, the most popular figures increasingly seem to be those further to the left of the establishment. Even crazier, “socialist” is no longer being considered a derogatory label.

Zohran’s victory over Cuomo in the NYC mayoral election is emblematic of how an issues focused campaign, particularly one centered on affordability, can defeat the establishment Democrats. This is a result of the life’s work of Bernie and his two presidential bids to build up a movement and this moment is the best shot we have of building a large progressive bloc in the house. Now on to the races:

TN-07 – Nashville Recap
This special election was to fill the seat vacated by Republican Mark Green who resigned this summer because he got an offer to good to pass up from Private Equity (who amongst us wouldn’t). This is a district that went Trump +20 in 2024 and was not even on the radar until the elections in November showed the massive gains for the democrats in Virginia, New Jersey and Georgia. Aftyn Behn, the democratic candidate, made this interesting running a pretty progressive campaign in a place where Democrats typically run more centrist candidates to appeal to the more moderate base here. She was even previously endorsed by the Tennessee DSA.

When polling showed the race tightening, it spooked Republicans and prompted them to pour resources into what was supposed to be a “super safe” district. Reporting indicated that up to $7 million was spent, and the district even received a visit from Mike Johnson. That investment appeared to pay off: Behn performed significantly better in the early vote, cast before the national attention ramped up, but was decimated in the election day vote. Republican Mike Epps ultimately won, but with single digit margins and given the turnout was similar to a normal midterm, the 13-point Democratic shift still stands out as significant.

Now for the primaries in 2026 to watch

IL-09 Evanston
Kat Abughazaleh is a young progressive journalist running to fill the seat of retiring incumbent Jan Schakowsky. She is one of the young Democrats fully embracing social media and has been on the front lines of ICE protests; she was recently indicted for protesting at an immigration facility. She is running against the establishment-backed candidate, Daniel Bliss, and early polling suggests the primary will be highly competitive.

CA-11 San Francisco

Nancy Pelosi is retiring, and the race to follow her legendary tenure is heating up. Three major candidates have begun campaigning: Board of Supervisors member Connie Chan; Saikat Chakrabarti, a founder of Justice Democrats and former AOC chief of staff; and State Senator Scott Wiener. This is my home district and I think it will be an interesting race, the first completive primary since 1987! I will have a lot more to say about this one before the June primary and plan to attend events for each candidate.

Now for the New York City section 
There are a bunch of seats that are either currently held by more centrist Democrats or being vacated by retiring incumbents that are prime targets for progressive challengers. They will be riding on the Zohran’s momentum (Zomentum) so if he can execute on his campaign promises in the first 6 months (primary in June ) and the the first year (Nov General) we will see if the people are still with this socialism stuff.

NY-10 Manhattan
Dan Goldman won the Democratic nomination in 2022 with just 25.8% of the vote and is viewed as a prime target for a progressive primary challenger, given the district went heavily for Zohran (+37 in the primary/ +~24 in general). Most people assumed that this was Brad Lander’s seat but before he declared a DSA candidate, City Council Member Alexa Avilés, also began campaigning. She has since dropped out after a likely boss call and it looks like Brad Landers will be the favorite. Nancy Pelosi is not a fan apparently:

NY-08 Brooklyn
Hakeem Jefferies is getting primaried by NYC Council Member Chi Osse. This race has caused drama over the fact that Chi did not get endorsed by DSA and was discouraged from running from Zohran and AOC. There’s a bunch of reasons but too many to get into here.

I think that despite Zohran winning NY-08 by large margins its hard to know how much of that will transfer to Chi given that Jefferies it the House Minority leader and  is pretty popular in the district. I generally think that this is a good thing and will force Jefferies to run against someone to hius left and hopefully force some consesccions out of him. 

Chi has ended his campaign after failing to secure key endorsements, the left wing in New York has decided to use its resource in other races and to ensure Zohran’s policy agenda gets enacted. I knew it was gonna be an uphill battle for Chi but it would have been fun to watch.

NY-12 – Midtown
Incumbent Democrat Jerry Nadler is retiring, and a rogues’ gallery of characters has declared their candidacy, including a Kennedy heir and Cam Kasky, a 25-year-old activist. Cam is who I will be rooting for. After surviving the Parkland shooting, he became a leading gun control advocate and has helped pass reforms across the country. He is a DSA member with a firmly progressive agenda.

NY-15 – The Bronx
Incumbent Ritchie Torres has been in hot water the last year for not prioritizing his constituents and is now facing a challenge from the left. Several candidates have declared, including Michael Blake, another New York mayoral candidate who had standout moments during the crowded debates, often staking out positions further left than even Zohran on some issues.

NY-07  – Brooklyn 
Progressive stalwart Nydia Velázquez is retiring in one of the bluest districts in the country, with massive margins for Zohran (+52 in the primary and roughly +40 in the general), the heart of the so-called “commie corridor.” Assemblymember Claire Valdez a DSA and UAW organizer has begun the process of getting endorsements and I think when she declares will be a front runner.

I also wanted an excuse to share this tweet: